OffScheduleTuesday Trends
What the winners did in Week 4 and what's deciding games in 2026. Every number comes from our situational database, built play by play.
What "on schedule" means
Every set of downs is a race to convert early or live in 3rd down short. A set of downs is on schedule when the offense moves the chains on 1st or 2nd down, or gets to 3rd and 3 or shorter.
Why it matters: 3rd down gets a lot harder the longer it is
How often offenses convert on 3rd down in 2026, by distance.
Winners lived in 3rd and short. Losers lived in 3rd and long.
Of the losing teams' 3rd downs in Week 4 were 7 yards or longer. That's where offenses convert about 1 in 4. Winners had 69 third and shorts. Losers had 45.
Every Week 4 3rd down, by distance
All 16 winners vs all 16 losers.
Week 4 situational football analysis: how often the winner won each pivotal circumstance
How to read it: 12-4 means the team that won this battle won the game 12 times and lost 4. Games where both teams were even are left out.
Winners vs losers, Week 4 averages
| Per team, per game | Winners | Losers |
|---|---|---|
| Sets of downs on schedule | 67% | 58% |
| 3rd and 1 to 3 faced | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| 3rd and 7 or longer faced | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| 3rd down conversion | 40% | 31% |
| Red zone trips ending in a TD | 67% | 54% |
| Accepted flags on offense | 4.3 | 5.2 |
Three games that show it
Atlanta stayed ahead of the sticks. New Orleans didn't.
Sets of downs on schedule: Atlanta 21 of 26, New Orleans 14 of 28
The Saints kept landing in 3rd and long: 9 of their 15 third downs were 7 yards or more, where offenses convert about 1 in 4. Down 14-0 after one quarter, they never caught up.
Indy kept 3rd downs short. Washington lived in 3rd and long.
Washington 3rd downs that were 7 yards or longer
Washington had one 3rd and short all day and converted 2 of 15 third downs. The Colts got 6 third and shorts and pulled away 30-13.
Minnesota's D kept putting Miami behind.
On Miami's 4 drives that had a sack, a loss or a flag on 1st or 2nd down
Miami went 0 for 4 on 3rd and 7 or longer. Its only 10 points came on drives that stayed on schedule, and it lost by 5.
In 2026 the distance is deciding games
Through four weeks, compared to the first four weeks of 2025. Turnovers still matter most, but less than last year. The gap is being filled by how far teams are from the sticks.
How often the team that won the situation won the game
Example: in 2026, when one team faced fewer 3rd and 7 or longer than its opponent, it won 71% of the time. In 2025 that was 50%, a coin flip.
64 games each season. Games where both teams were even in a category are left out of that category.
Accepted flags on offense per team, per game. Up 9% on last year, and they're hurting more.
3rd and 7+ faced per game in 2026: winners vs losers. In 2025 it was 6.0 vs 6.2, almost no gap.
Red zone trips ending in a touchdown, 2026 vs 2025. Offenses are finishing a little better.
Where the situations collide
- Tampa has been sacked 16 times, most in the league. Only 3 of those 16 drives scored.
- Dallas has 4 sacks, 28th, and allows 23 of 42 on 3rd down, worst in the league.
- Minnesota opponents are 3 for 30 on 3rd and 7 or longer.
- New Orleans is on schedule on 48% of early downs, 24th, but converts 10 of 28 on 3rd and 7+, 5th best.
- Atlanta is on schedule on 57% of early downs, 5th, and scores a TD on 8 of 10 red zone trips.
- Baltimore allowed 10 of 19 on 3rd and 7+ in Weeks 1 to 3, worst in the league, then held Tennessee 0 for 6 Sunday.
- Chicago allows 9 of 38 on 3rd down, 2nd best, and 1 of 17 on 3rd and 7+, best.
- Green Bay is on schedule on 46% of early downs, 29th, and its D has handed out 8 first downs on 3rd or 4th down with flags, most in the league.
Want the full Week 5 scouting report for your team? Scouting reports drop every Wednesday: every game, the plays we think decide it.
offschedulefootball.com/scoutingEvery one of these numbers is one click away
Our database tracks every snap by situation: on schedule or not, negative plays, 3rd down distance, red zone trips and the flags that extend or kill drives, all linked to the exact play.
Tuesday Trends publishes every Tuesday. Weeks 1 to 4, regular season only.